Climate change: What more can science organizations do?

By Flor Lacanilao

From global terrorism and the spread of disease to the dangers of global warming, we are increasingly facing the sorts of threats for which governments everywhere will need to turn to their scientists. (“The scientific impact of nations,” Nature, 15 July 2004.)

Perhaps no other problems in this century threaten us more, in magnitude of destruction and death. From impacts of climate change alone -- e.g., typhoons, floods, landslides -- we have seen samples of their increasing frequency and damages, with the government still unprepared. And to think that yet to come are impacts on food production systems (agriculture and fisheries), communicable diseases, displacement, migration, etc. Our underdevelopment, persistent poverty, and archipelagic conditions make the Philippines more vulnerable.

The scientists referred to are the researchers -- in natural and social sciences, engineering, technology, and math -- who produce information, which can be useful information -- knowledge -- if research is done properly. Hence, the importance of doing research properly (see Fig. 1 in Doing research for development)

In addition to producing information/knowledge, scientists also have the social responsibility to disseminate useful information (through community service), and to use it for development programs, education, policy-making, etc. Together with research, they are what we call R&D (Fig. 2 in Doing research for development).

An important role of science organizations is promoting R&D. Consider research first. In their annual scientific meetings or conferences, most of our science organizations are unaware that study results are presented for two reasons: to inform the audience and to invite respected scientists in the audience to comment on the presented paper (preliminary peer review). Comments improve the manuscript before submission to a chosen primary journal. This crucial step -- submitting research manuscript to peer-reviewed international journal -- insures proper publication. Such journals have two important features: adequate peer review of the manuscript and wide accessibility for peer verification of published results.

Otherwise, research is not completed; or if published elsewhere -- e.g., conference proceedings, Philippine journals, institutional reports, or newsletters -- which are not adequately peer reviewed, the research output is just a gray literature (as seen in Fig.1). This is the kind of research papers largely published in the country (see Continuing problems with gray literature).

Science or professional organizations have also an important role in disseminating and using scientific information, the second part of R&D or development phase (seen in Fig.2). An example is promoting public understanding of science or climate change. Program success will be easier the better the research track record of the organization's membership; that is, whether the majority of the members are properly published.

Recently, concerned members of The Outstanding Women in the Nation’s Service (TOWNS) have launched an “information caravan” on climate change to deliver relevant scientific information to local government units. Among our top scientists in the group are Helen Yap of UP Diliman Marine Science Institute and Jurgenne Primavera of SEAFDEC in Iloilo. Full text appears below and at,
http://opinion.inquirer.net/24423/a-compact-for-growth (Inquirer, March 7, 2012)

My only concern is that in many group activities in the country, a common practice is making group decision, majority rules, to settle opposing views (Democratic governance impedes academic reform).
A likely problem arises on how to agree with research and science issues, when the properly published scientists in the group are a minority. But confronted with the increasing threats of devastation from changing climate, I think it is possible for such a group discussing such issues to come to a useful conclusion. And insure program success. I trust Jurgenne, Helen, and the rest of TOWNS will see this through. And show the government leaders and media people the need to turn to scientists when dealing with important national problems.

(Dr. Flor Lacanilao is the former Chancellor of the University of the Philippines in the Visayas)

Manila, Other Asian Megacities Threatened by Climate Change - Multilateral Agencies Report

BANGKOK, THAILAND (22 October 2010) – Asia’s coastal megacities will flood more often,
on a larger scale, and affect millions more people, if current climate change trends continue, a new report warns.

The report Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities examines the impact of
climate change on Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, and Manila, under a range of different scenarios
through to 2050. The report is the product of a two-year collaborative study by the Asian Development
Bank (ADB), the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the World Bank. It was released
here today at the Asia Pacific Climate Change Adaptation Forum.

The report finds that costs from major flooding events on infrastructure and the economy could
run into the billions of dollars, with urban poor populations likely to be the hardest hit. It concludes that
all three cities need to take targeted, city-specific and cutting edge approaches to meet these challenges.

Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, and Manila all have populations close to or over 10 million. Two are capital cities and all three are centers of national and regional economic growth contributing substantially to the GDP of the respective countries. As coastal megacities, all face increased climate related risks such as rising sea levels and an increased frequency of extreme weather events. While commendable measures to counteract flooding have already been taken by these cities, much more needs to be done, the report argues.

For cities to address future climate related risks, sound urban environmental management is crucial. Land subsidence due to groundwater pumping, dumping of solid waste into city canals and waterways, clogged drainage systems, and deforestation in the upper watershed all contribute to urban flooding. Better management of these urban environmental issues will help manage future climate-related impacts.

Given the damage costs associated with climate change, the report also recommends that governments of coastal megacities undertake proactive measures to address climate risks as an integral part of urban planning. This includes developing strategic urban adaptation frameworks for managing climate risks, strengthening institutional capacity for adaptation and implementing measures such as land use planning and zoning to help reduce urban vulnerability.

In Bangkok, flooding is caused by land subsidence and increased rainfall in the large watershed that drains through the city. Therefore, measures to control groundwater pumping, improve flood forecasting and information, raise dikes and invest in pump station capacity, are needed. The threat from sea level rise and storm surges are found to be less dramatic, but still warrant investment in coastal zone protection and land use planning that takes a long-term perspective on these factors.

In Ho Chi Minh City, the report states that around 26% of the population is currently affected by extreme storm events, but those numbers could climb to more than 60% by 2050. The government has expressed interest in a climate change adaptation plan for the city, which can provide an overall framework for adaptation measures within relevant sectors. Infrastructure-based approaches can also be usefully combined with ecosystems-based approaches such as management of mangroves and rehabilitation of urban wetlands.

In Metro Manila, the report states that in the worst case scenario a major flood could cause damage totaling almost a quarter of the metropolitan area’s GDP. The main threats to Manila are extreme rainfall, sea level rise, as well as more powerful typhoons. The report suggests that continuous improvements and redesigning of flood control infrastructure are necessary.

The report’s findings on the three cities are a bellwether for coastal megacities around the world, from Asia to Africa. Its key messages include the following: i) Better management of urban environment and infrastructure will help manage potential climate-related impacts in coastal cities; ii) Climate-related risks should be considered as an integral part of city and regional planning; and iii) Targeted city-specific solutions, combining infrastructure investment, zoning, and ecosystem-based strategies are required.

The report can be downloaded from the ADB and World Bank websites:

http://www.adb.org/environment and http://go.worldbank.org/TDB4HG8O30

ADB, based in Manila, is dedicated to reducing poverty in Asia and the Pacific through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Established in 1966, it is owned by 67 members―48 from the Asia-Pacific region.

JICA is a bilateral development agency of the Japanese government dedicated to inclusive and dynamic development. About 100 offices are located worldwide to promote projects and programs that meet the needs of the partner country.

The World Bank’s Headquarters are in Washington DC. Its mission is to fight poverty with passion and professionalism for lasting results and to help people help themselves and their environment by providing resources, sharing knowledge, building capacity and forging partnerships in the public and private sectors. The World Bank was founded in 1944 and has 187 member countries

(Source: http://www.adb.org/Media/Articles/2010/13370-asian-climates-changes/ADB-WB-JICA-joint-NR.pdf)