Asia's Booming Cities Must Go Green or Risk Disaster - ADB Study

BANGKOK, THAILAND – Asia must act now to pave the way for green, resource-friendly cities or face a bleak and environmentally degraded future, says a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report.

“Asia has seen unprecedented urban population growth but this has been accompanied by immense stress on the environment,” said Changyong Rhee, ADB’s Chief Economist. “The challenge now is to put in place policies which will reverse that trend and facilitate the development of green technology and green urbanization.”

In a special chapter of its flagship annual statistical publication, Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2012, ADB examines the challenges and opportunities associated with the region’s breakneck urban boom. It also details measures needed to turn cities into environmentally sustainable, inclusive growth centers.

View infographic in higher resolution.

Since the 1980s, Asia has been urbanizing at a faster rate than anywhere else, with the region already home to almost half of all the world’s city dwellers. In just over a decade, it will have 21 of 37 megacities worldwide, and over the next 30 years another 1.1 billion people are expected to join Asia’s already swollen urban ranks.

This breakneck expansion has been accompanied by a sharp rise in pollution, slums, and widening economic and social inequalities which are causing rapid environmental degradation. Particularly disturbing are urban carbon dioxide emissions, which if left unchecked under a business-as-usual scenario, could reach 10.2 metric tons per capita by 2050, a level which would have disastrous consequences for both Asia and the rest of the world.

Rising urban populations mean that over 400 million people in Asians cities may be at risk of coastal flooding and roughly 350 million at risk of inland flooding by 2025. Unless managed properly, these trends could lead to widespread environmental degradation and declining standards of living.

The report notes that there is hope. The growth of cities can have many advantages, including critical masses of people in relatively small areas, making it easier and more cost effective to supply essential services like piped water and sanitation. Rising education levels, factories leaving cities, the growth of middle classes and declining birth rates typically associated with urbanization also have a broadly beneficial impact on resource use and the environment.

Conservation and efficiency improvements will help. Many countries have begun diversifying their energy sources to include renewables and have been investing in energy-efficient buildings and sustainable transport systems. Imposing congestion and emission charges, as in Singapore, and removing inefficient fuel subsidies, as in Indonesia, can make prices more fully reflect social costs.  But the report says much more is needed, including the development and mainstreaming of new green technologies. Early examples are waste-to-energy conversion plants, as in the Philippines and Thailand, or “smart” electric grids.

For urbanization to be not only green but inclusive, policy makers need to promote climate resilient cities, in order to prevent disasters like the 2011 Bangkok floods, and improve urban slum areas, the report points out.

A Bright Idea for Energy Reduction

(With support from ADB, the Government of the Philippines is offering 13 million energy-efficient compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) to replace traditional incandescent bulbs throughout the country. Photo by Tomas Eric Sales)

By Rita R. Festin

The Philippines is replacing energy-wasting light bulbs with more efficient fluorescent bulbs, promising to save millions of pesos—and bulbs—and to reduce debilitating power failures.

Cebu City, Cebu - Prodded by persistent power shortages, the Philippines government has turned to the humble light bulb to help end debilitating power failures in major urban centers, among them Cebu City—the fastest-growing in the country and second only to Metro Manila as an important industrial and cultural hub.

Under the US$46.5-million Philippine Energy Efficiency Project (PEEP), the government is offering 13 million energy-efficient compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) to replace traditional incandescent bulbs in Cebu City and throughout the country, setting aside US$18 million for bulb replacement.

"If 1 million incandescent bulbs are replaced with CFLs at the cost of an estimated US$1.5 million, the electricity demand will be reduced by about 50 megawatts (MW)," said Sohail Hasnie, ADB principal energy specialist.” The impact on the power system will be equivalent to building a new 50 MW power station, which would have cost at least US$50 million and taken 3 to 4 years to build, and another US$2 million to US$3 million each year to operate.”

Funded in part by a US$31-million ADB concessional loan, the project will defer investments of some US$450 million in new power plant construction. It will also save about US$100 million annually in fuel costs and avoid 300,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually by reducing power generation.

While the average incandescent bulb lasts only about 800 hours, the new CFLs last up to 10,000 hours, substantially reducing the residential customer's energy consumption and electric bill. Each customer can then save up to P400 (US$8.60) per bulb each year for the next 7 to 10 years.

Retrofit, Reduce, and Replace

The PEEP will retrofit government office buildings and public lighting systems with other efficient lighting options. It has established an energy service company as a one-stop shop to provide financial and technical support to companies and institutions planning to reduce energy consumption (such as hospitals, schools, government offices, hotels, and malls).

"With this project in place, the chances of brownouts are now getting slimmer," declared Energy Undersecretary Roy Kyamko during the recent project launching. “With the savings in megawatts, the load that will be prevented through the use of CFLs can be redistributed to other parts of the Visayas," he added.

In Cebu, privately owned businesses have resorted to using their own generators during scheduled power interruptions. The city’s rotating brownouts, as frequent as three times a day, are caused by aging and inefficient power plants. "When there is a shortfall due to a breakdown or maintenance of power plants, we have outages, which are happening right now," said Ethel Natera, Visayan Electric Company (VECO) spokesperson, ”If we don't interrupt our customers' power supply, there will be a problem in the whole system, resulting in a breakdown.”

”If any plant goes down, then there will be outages because there is no more reserve supply," said Jaime Jose Aboitiz, VECO executive vice president. According to government data, peak power demand is 1,175 MW, while the total power supply is only 1,140 MW.

Energy officials are hopeful that with the PEEP, and new power plants in place by 2010, the critical power situation will be tempered. Besides VECO, other electric cooperatives are also being tapped to distribute about 2 million CFLs in the Visayas.

VECO residential customers can visit any of its branches with their latest bill, identification, and two functioning incandescent bulbs and receive six 15-watt CFLs in exchange.

ADB is the lead financing agency in the Philippine power sector, with a third of its total of over US$10 billion in domestic lending going to generation, transmission, distribution, and sector development support. ADB also participates in the government's power sector restructuring and power plant privatization program to encourage competition, which would help lower electricity costs. The focus of ADB's future power sector operations will be on promoting efficient and renewable energy, and on improving rural distribution systems.

(Source:  http://www.adb.org/documents/feature-stories/2010/phi-bright-idea.asp?p=phimain)

Manila, Other Asian Megacities Threatened by Climate Change - Multilateral Agencies Report

BANGKOK, THAILAND (22 October 2010) – Asia’s coastal megacities will flood more often,
on a larger scale, and affect millions more people, if current climate change trends continue, a new report warns.

The report Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities examines the impact of
climate change on Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, and Manila, under a range of different scenarios
through to 2050. The report is the product of a two-year collaborative study by the Asian Development
Bank (ADB), the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the World Bank. It was released
here today at the Asia Pacific Climate Change Adaptation Forum.

The report finds that costs from major flooding events on infrastructure and the economy could
run into the billions of dollars, with urban poor populations likely to be the hardest hit. It concludes that
all three cities need to take targeted, city-specific and cutting edge approaches to meet these challenges.

Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, and Manila all have populations close to or over 10 million. Two are capital cities and all three are centers of national and regional economic growth contributing substantially to the GDP of the respective countries. As coastal megacities, all face increased climate related risks such as rising sea levels and an increased frequency of extreme weather events. While commendable measures to counteract flooding have already been taken by these cities, much more needs to be done, the report argues.

For cities to address future climate related risks, sound urban environmental management is crucial. Land subsidence due to groundwater pumping, dumping of solid waste into city canals and waterways, clogged drainage systems, and deforestation in the upper watershed all contribute to urban flooding. Better management of these urban environmental issues will help manage future climate-related impacts.

Given the damage costs associated with climate change, the report also recommends that governments of coastal megacities undertake proactive measures to address climate risks as an integral part of urban planning. This includes developing strategic urban adaptation frameworks for managing climate risks, strengthening institutional capacity for adaptation and implementing measures such as land use planning and zoning to help reduce urban vulnerability.

In Bangkok, flooding is caused by land subsidence and increased rainfall in the large watershed that drains through the city. Therefore, measures to control groundwater pumping, improve flood forecasting and information, raise dikes and invest in pump station capacity, are needed. The threat from sea level rise and storm surges are found to be less dramatic, but still warrant investment in coastal zone protection and land use planning that takes a long-term perspective on these factors.

In Ho Chi Minh City, the report states that around 26% of the population is currently affected by extreme storm events, but those numbers could climb to more than 60% by 2050. The government has expressed interest in a climate change adaptation plan for the city, which can provide an overall framework for adaptation measures within relevant sectors. Infrastructure-based approaches can also be usefully combined with ecosystems-based approaches such as management of mangroves and rehabilitation of urban wetlands.

In Metro Manila, the report states that in the worst case scenario a major flood could cause damage totaling almost a quarter of the metropolitan area’s GDP. The main threats to Manila are extreme rainfall, sea level rise, as well as more powerful typhoons. The report suggests that continuous improvements and redesigning of flood control infrastructure are necessary.

The report’s findings on the three cities are a bellwether for coastal megacities around the world, from Asia to Africa. Its key messages include the following: i) Better management of urban environment and infrastructure will help manage potential climate-related impacts in coastal cities; ii) Climate-related risks should be considered as an integral part of city and regional planning; and iii) Targeted city-specific solutions, combining infrastructure investment, zoning, and ecosystem-based strategies are required.

The report can be downloaded from the ADB and World Bank websites:

http://www.adb.org/environment and http://go.worldbank.org/TDB4HG8O30

ADB, based in Manila, is dedicated to reducing poverty in Asia and the Pacific through inclusive economic growth, environmentally sustainable growth, and regional integration. Established in 1966, it is owned by 67 members―48 from the Asia-Pacific region.

JICA is a bilateral development agency of the Japanese government dedicated to inclusive and dynamic development. About 100 offices are located worldwide to promote projects and programs that meet the needs of the partner country.

The World Bank’s Headquarters are in Washington DC. Its mission is to fight poverty with passion and professionalism for lasting results and to help people help themselves and their environment by providing resources, sharing knowledge, building capacity and forging partnerships in the public and private sectors. The World Bank was founded in 1944 and has 187 member countries

(Source: http://www.adb.org/Media/Articles/2010/13370-asian-climates-changes/ADB-WB-JICA-joint-NR.pdf)

Cash In Hand: Conditional Cash Transfers Free Families From Poverty - Asian Development Bank

Editor's note: We would like to guide our readers to a story by the Diliman Diary on August 25, 2010 (http://diliman-diary.blogspot.com/2010/08/4.html) about a 2010 study conducted by several professors from U.P. Diliman's School of Economics stating in part that conditional cash transfers were among the more successful government interventions in the Philippine setting.