By Chanda Shahani
The non-resolution of the South China
Sea dispute in the immediate future is most likely and this
unresolved status quo is most favorable to the country with the most
dominant military force, which is China, U.P. Diliman Asian Center
Professor Edgardo E. Dagdag said in a presentation.
Speaking last October 15, 2011 at the
National Chengchi University (NCCU) in Taiwan, Professor Dagdag who
is also concurrently the President of the Philippines-Taiwan
Friendship Society, said that the current developments which reflects
the Philippine position is as follows:
The Philippines is urging
Association of South East Asian Nation (ASEAN) member states to take
a common stand and seek common positions with respect to addressing
the concerns in the South China Sea.
It has lodged a diplomatic protest
before the United Nations International Tribunal on the Law of the
Sea (ITLOS) agaisnt China's territorial claim over the whole SCS.
The Philippines says that it would
defend its position in the SCS, and calls this the West Philippine
Sea.
The Philippines is proposing that
the SCS be converted into a Zone of Peace, Freedom, Friendship and
Coioperation (ZPFF/C)
Highlights of the Philippines' ZPFF/C
proposal
The disputed areas in the SCS
would be segregated from the non-disputed areas in accordance with
the UNCLOS.
Only the Spratly island and
Paracels are considered the disputed areas.
The disputed areas would be
enclaved and designated as Joint Cooperation Areas (JCA). It would
be managed by a Joint Permanent Working Committee (JPWC) composed of
claimants from the ASEAN. The JPWC would report to the ASEAN-China
Senior Officials Meeting (SOM).
The JCA will be demilitarized. The
military personnel will be replaced with police or coast guard
personnel.
The undisputed areas shall remain
under the jurisdiction of those countries whose rights are
protected by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
(UNCLOS).
A
two-day meeting of the ASEAN maritime legal experts in Manila last
Sept 2011 concluded that there is a legal basis for the Phil
proposal.
ASEAN
tasked its SOM to study further the Phil proposal and the results of
the meeting of the ASEAN maritime legal experts and to submit its
report to the Nov 2011 ASEAN summit meeting.
Sources
from the Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs say that the Phil
proposal has the support of Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia.
China’s
reaction (Ambassador Liu Jianchao, Chinese Ambassador to the Phil):
(a) The meeting of the ASEAN maritime legal experts is not an
effective way to deal with the dispute; and (b) The ZOPFF/C concept
of segregation is not feasible at this stage due to the claimants’
overlapping claims.
Professor
Dagdag said that the increasing interest shown ny the Unitred States
on the SCS issue will have the resulting effect of thee not be a
peaceful resolution for the forseeable future. Moreover, China
opposes the internationalization of the dispute and the involvement
of non-claimant countries such as the United States.
He added
that China is not likely to give up its announced preferred position
which is to address the SCS issue through bilateral negotiations.
This is a stumbling block to the immediate resolution of the SCS
issue since ASEAN prefers a multilateral approach.
Professor
Dagdag said that ASEAN ismore likely to press for the adoption of a
regional code of conduct to address the issue. This projected stance
would in all probability be supported by China but not the U.S.
He
said that a recent conference on the Spratlys held in the Philippines
on October, 2011 showed China's true mindset. Chinese academics
declared that the UNCLOS cannot address the Spratlys issue. This is
revealing, Professor Dagdag said, because “Chinese academics
generally toe and articulate the 'official line'.”
He
said the SCS issue will remain a big irritant in Philippines-China
relations and will give the Philippines the reason to seek closer
security relations with the U.S. To protect itself and its Kalayaan
Island group claim.